Forecasting ocean wave energy: The ECMWF wave model and time series methods     

Gordon Reikard  Pierre Pinson  Jean-Raymond Bidlot 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(10):1089-1099

Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually.  相似文献   

2008年夏季西北冰洋观测区叶绿素a和初级生产力粒级结构          下载免费PDF全文

刘子琳  陈建芳  刘艳岚  白有成  张海生  高生泉  李宏亮  卢勇 《海洋学报》2011,33(2):124-133

对2008年夏季在西北冰洋172°～143.6°W的楚科奇海及其北部海区对粒度分级叶绿素a和初级生产力现场观测资料,对观测区的空间分布特征进行了研究.结果表明,观测海区表层叶绿素a浓度为0.013～19.367 μg/dm3,平均值为0.677士2.2661 μg/dm3,次表层水叶绿素a浓度高于其它水层.水柱叶绿素a...  相似文献   

A margin-wide BSR gas hydrate assessment: Canada’s Atlantic margin     

David C. Mosher 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2011,28(8):1540-1553

It is the intent of this paper to explore a significant extent of an entire passive continental margin for hydrate occurrence to understand hydrate modes of occurrence, preferred geologic settings and estimate potential volumes of methane. The presence of gas hydrates offshore of eastern Canada has long been inferred from estimated stability zone calculations, but little physical evidence has been offered. An extensive set of 2-D and 3-D, single and multi-channel seismic reflection data comprising in excess of 140,000 line-km was analyzed. Bottom simulating reflections (BSR) were unequivocally identified at seven sites, ranging between 250 and 445 m below the seafloor and in water depths of 620-2850 m. The combined area of the BSRs is 9311 km², which comprises a small proportion of the entire theoretical stability zone along the Canadian Atlantic margin (∼715,165 km²). The BSR within at least six of these sites lies in a sedimentary drift deposit or sediment wave field, indicating the likelihood of grain sorting and potential porosity and permeability (reservoir) development. Although there are a variety of conditions required to generate and recognize a BSR, one might assume that these sites offer the most potential for highest hydrate concentration and exploitation. Total hydrate in formation at the sites of recognized BSR’s is estimated at 17 to 190 × 10⁹ m³ or 0.28 to 3.12 × 10¹³ m³ of methane gas at STP. Although it has been shown that hydrate can exist without a BSR, the results from this regional study argue that conservative estimates of the global reserve of hydrate along continental margins are necessary.  相似文献   

Expected and observed conditions during the SAGE iron addition experiment in Subantarctic waters     

Mark G. Hadfield 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2011,58(6):764-775

The SAGE iron addition experiment was conducted from R.V. Tangaroa east of South Island, New Zealand, in late March-early April 2004. A desktop survey of climatological data was completed before the experiment, providing information to inform site selection and experiment design. The desktop survey is presented here in updated and enhanced form in order to explain the site selection and describe the conditions expected at the site during the experiment in comparison with those actually encountered.The experiment site was in Subantarctic waters between the Subtropical and Subantarctic Fronts. These waters are characterised by high surface macronutrient concentration, low iron concentration and low chlorophyll. The preferred site based on the desktop survey was in the vicinity of 173.5°E, 47.5°S, in Southern Bounty Trough. The actual release location was chosen immediately before the release and was 112 km to the northwest of this at 172°32′E, 46°44′S. The surface water here has typically come from the southwest (over the northern Campbell Plateau) or the southeast (through Pukaki Gap) and the mean current is directed towards ENE at ∼0.1 m s⁻¹. The release location is well removed from regions of high eddy kinetic energy to the east (where the Subantarctic Front reaches its northern limit) and the west (where fine-scale instabilities develop on the Southland Front, which flows along the continental shelf). Typical conditions at the release site at the end of March are: surface temperature 12 °C; mixed layer depth 40 m; surface chlorophyll concentration ∼0.3 mg m⁻³; surface photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) 23 E m⁻² d⁻¹; surface nutrient concentrations 8-10 mmol m⁻³ (nitrate), 0.5-0.8 mmol m⁻³ (phosphate), 1-2 mmol m⁻³ (silicate) and 0.1-0.5 nM (iron); 99th percentile wind speed 19-21 m s⁻¹. At this time of year, surface PAR is well below its summer maximum, the mixed layer is beginning its seasonal deepening and the silicate concentration is at its seasonal minimum. These factors may have limited the phytoplankton response to iron addition and were compounded in March-April 2004 by strong winds early in the experiment (substantially exceeding the 99th percentile in speed), lower than the average SST, larger than the average mixed layer depth, silicate concentration at the bottom end of the expected range and initially low PAR.  相似文献   

Grazing suppression of dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP) accumulation in iron-fertilised, sub-Antarctic waters     

S.D. Archer  K. SafiA. Hall  D.G. CummingsM. Harvey 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2011,58(6):839-850

The impact of in situ iron fertilisation on the production of particulate dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSPp) and its breakdown product dimethyl sulphide (DMS) was monitored during the SOLAS air-sea gas exchange experiment (SAGE). The experiment was conducted in the high nitrate, low chlorophyll (HNLC) waters of the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean (46.7°S 172.5°E) to the south-east of New Zealand, during March-April, 2004. In addition to monitoring net changes in the standing stocks of DMSPp and DMS, a series of dilution experiments were used to determine the DMSPp production and consumption rates in relation to increased iron availability. In contrast to previous experiments in the Southern Ocean, DMS concentrations decreased over the course of the 15-d iron-fertilisation experiment, from an integrated volume-specific concentration in the mixed layer on day 0 of 0.78 nM (measured values 0.65-0.91 nM) to 0.46 nM (measured values 0.42-0.47 nM) by day 15, in parallel with the surrounding waters. DMSPp, chlorophyll a and the abundance of photosynthetic picoeukaryotes exhibited indiscernible or only moderate increases in response to the raised iron availability, despite an obvious physiological response by the phytoplankton. High specific growth rates of DMSPp, equivalent to 0.8-1.2 doublings d⁻¹, occurred at the simulated 60% light level of the dilution experiments. Despite the high production rates, DMSPp accumulation was suppressed in part by microzooplankton grazers who consumed between 61% d⁻¹ and 126% d⁻¹ of the DMSPp production. Temporal trends in the rates of production and consumption illustrated a close coupling between the DMSP-producing phytoplankton and their microzooplankton grazers. Similar grazing and production rates were observed for the eukaryotic picophytoplankton that dominated the phytoplankton biomass, partial evidence that picoeukaryotes contributed a substantial proportion of the DMSP synthesis. These rates for DMSPp and picoeukaryotes were considerably higher than for chlorophyll a, indicating higher cycling rates of the DMSP-producing taxa than for the bulk phytoplankton community. When compared to the total phytoplankton community, there was no evidence of selection against the DMSP-containing phytoplankton by the microzooplankton grazers; the opposite appeared to be the case. SAGE demonstrated that increased iron availability in the HNLC waters of the Southern Ocean does not invariably lead to enhanced DMS sea-air flux. The potential suppression of DMSPp accumulation by grazers needs to be taken into account in future attempts to elevate DMS emission through in situ iron fertilisation and in understanding the hypothesised link between levels of Aeolian iron deposition in the Southern Ocean, DMS emission and global albedo.  相似文献   

西菲律宾海比科尔陆架深海沉积物古菌多样性研究     

格根塔娜  萨仁高娃  于心科  李铁刚  周伟光 《海洋科学》2011,35(11):4-10

通过构建16S rRNA 基因文库, 对西太平洋西菲律宾海东板比科尔陆架5 个不同层位沉积物样品中的古菌的多样性进行了研究, 并获得了465 个有效克隆63 个OTUs （Operational Taxonomic Units）。通过16S rRNA 序列与GenBank 已知序列的同源性比较及构建系统进化树的结果显示...  相似文献   

Formation rates of Subantarctic mode water and Antarctic intermediate water within the South Pacific   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Corinne A. Hartin  Rana A. FineBernadette M. Sloyan  Lynne D. TalleyTeresa K. Chereskin  James Happell 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2011,58(5):524-534

The formation of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) significantly contributes to the total uptake and storage of anthropogenic gases, such as CO₂ and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), within the world's oceans. SAMW and AAIW formation rates in the South Pacific are quantified based on CFC-12 inventories using hydrographic data from WOCE, CLIVAR, and data collected in the austral winter of 2005. This study documents the first wintertime observations of CFC-11 and CFC-12 saturations with respect to the 2005 atmosphere in the formation region of the southeast Pacific for SAMW and AAIW. SAMW is 94% and 95% saturated for CFC-11 and CFC-12, respectively, and AAIW is 60% saturated for both CFC-11 and CFC-12. SAMW is defined from the Subantarctic Front to the equator between potential densities 26.80-27.06 kg m⁻³, and AAIW is defined from the Polar Front to 20°N between potential densities 27.06-27.40 kg m⁻³. CFC-12 inventories are 16.0×10⁶ moles for SAMW and 8.7×10⁶ moles for AAIW, corresponding to formation rates of 7.3±2.1 Sv for SAMW and 5.8±1.7 Sv for AAIW circulating within the South Pacific. Inter-ocean transports of SAMW from the South Pacific to the South Atlantic are estimated to be 4.4±0.6 Sv. Thus, the total formation of SAMW in the South Pacific is approximately 11.7±2.2 Sv. These formation rates represent the average formation rates over the major period of CFC input, from 1970 to 2005. The CFC-12 inventory maps provide direct evidence for two areas of formation of SAMW, one in the southeast Pacific and one in the central Pacific. Furthermore, eddies in the central Pacific containing high CFC concentrations may contribute to SAMW and to a lesser extent AAIW formation. These CFC-derived rates provide a baseline with which to compare past and future formation rates of SAMW and AAIW.  相似文献   

Particle fluxes in San Pedro Basin, California: A four-year record of sedimentation and physical forcing     

Lisa E. Collins  William BerelsonDouglas E. Hammond  Angela Knapp  Richard SchwartzDoug Capone 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2011,58(8):898-914

Moored sediment traps were deployed from January 2004 through December 2007 at depths of 550 and 800 m in San Pedro Basin (SPB), CA (33°33.0′N, 118°26.5′W). Additionally, floating sediment traps were deployed at 100 and 200 m for periods of 12-24 h during spring 2005, fall 2007, and spring 2008. Average annual fluxes of mass, particulate organic carbon (POC), ??¹³C_org, particulate organic nitrogen (PON), ??¹⁵N-PON, biogenic silica (bSiO₂), calcium carbonate (CaCO₃), and detrital material (non-biogenic) were coupled with climate records and used to examine sedimentation patterns, vertical flux variability, and organic matter sources to this coastal region. Annual average flux values were determined by binning data by month and averaging the monthly averages. The average annual fluxes to 550 m were 516±42 mg/m² d for mass (sdom of the monthly averages, n=117), 3.18±0.26 mmol C/m² d for POC (n=111), 0.70±0.05 mmol/m² d for CaCO₃ (n=110), 1.31±0.21 mmol/m² d for bSiO₂ (n=115), and 0.35±0.03 mmol/m² d for PON (n=111). Fluxes to 800 and to 550 m were similar, within 10%. Annual average values of ??¹³C_org at 550 m were −21.8±0.2‰ (n=108), and ??¹⁵N averages were 8.9±0.2‰ (n=95). The timing of both high and low flux particle collection was synchronous between the two traps. Given the frequency of trap cup rotation (4-11 days), this argues for particle settling rates ≥83 m/d for both high and low flux periods. The moored traps were deployed over one of the wettest (2004-2005, 74.6 cm rainfall) and driest (2006-2007, 6.6 cm) rain years on record. There was poor correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient, 95% confidence interval) of detrital mass flux with: C_org/N ratio (r=0.10, p=0.16); ??¹⁵N (r=−0.19, p=0.02); and rainfall (r=0.5, p=0.43), suggesting that runoff does not immediately cause increases in particle fluxes 15 km offshore. ??¹³C_org values suggest that most POC falling to the basin floor is marine derived. Coherence between satellite-derived chlorophyll a records from the trap location (±9 km² resolution) and SST data indicates that productivity and export occurs within a few days of upwelling and both of these parameters are reasonable predictors of POC export, with a time lag of a few days to 2 weeks (with no time lag—SeaWiFS chlorophyll a and POC flux, r=0.25, p=0.0014; chlorophyll a and bSiO₂ flux, r=0.28, p=0.0002).  相似文献   

Phytoplankton composition and biomass across the southern Indian Ocean   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Louise Schlüter  Peter HenriksenTorkel Gissel Nielsen  Hans H. Jakobsen 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2011,58(5):546-556

Phytoplankton composition and biomass was investigated across the southern Indian Ocean. Phytoplankton composition was determined from pigment analysis with subsequent calculations of group contributions to total chlorophyll a (Chl a) using CHEMTAX and, in addition, by examination in the microscope. The different plankton communities detected reflected the different water masses along a transect from Cape Town, South Africa, to Broome, Australia. The first station was influenced by the Agulhas Current with a very deep mixed surface layer. Based on pigment analysis this station was dominated by haptophytes, pelagophytes, cyanobacteria, and prasinophytes. Sub-Antarctic waters of the Southern Ocean were encountered at the next station, where new nutrients were intruded to the surface layer and the total Chl a concentration reached high concentrations of 1.7 ??g Chl a L⁻¹ with increased proportions of diatoms and dinoflagellates. The third station was also influenced by Southern Ocean waters, but located in a transition area on the boundary to subtropical water. Prochlorophytes appeared in the samples and Chl a was low, i.e., 0.3 ??g L⁻¹ in the surface with prevalence of haptophytes, pelagophytes, and cyanobacteria. The next two stations were located in the subtropical gyre with little mixing and general oligotrophic conditions where prochlorophytes, haptophytes and pelagophytes dominated. The last two stations were located in tropical waters influenced by down-welling of the Leeuwin Current and particularly prochlorophytes dominated at these two stations, but also pelagophytes, haptophytes and cyanobacteria were abundant. Haptophytes Type 6 (sensuZapata et al., 2004), most likely Emiliania huxleyi, and pelagophytes were the dominating eucaryotes in the southern Indian Ocean. Prochlorophytes dominated in the subtrophic and oligotrophic eastern Indian Ocean where Chl a was low, i.e., 0.043-0.086 ??g total Chl a L⁻¹ in the surface, and up to 0.4 ??g Chl a L⁻¹ at deep Chl a maximum. From the pigment analyses it was found that the dinoflagellates of unknown trophy enumerated in the microscope at the oligotrophic stations were possibly heterotrophic or mixotrophic. Presence of zeaxanthin containing heterotrophic bacteria may have increased the abundance of cyanobacteria determined by CHEMTAX.  相似文献   

中西太平洋金枪鱼延绳钓渔获组成及其多样性分析     

李勇  戴小杰  朱江峰  许柳雄 《海洋湖沼通报》2011,(2):52-58

根据2009年6～11月金枪鱼延绳钓观察员海上采集的数据,对中西太平洋S2°05′～S7°51′,W159°48′～W168°10′海域的延绳钓渔获物组成进行了分析.126个站点(钩次)的种类组成分析表明,该作业区域的渔获物有鱼类35种,隶属于9目22科30属;鲸类2种,隶属于1目2科2属;龟鳖类1种.反映种类组成多样...  相似文献